The decline of Hong Kong democratisation

Hong Kong

The National People’s Congress has just passed the “decision on improving the electoral system of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region” earlier this month. According to decision, there are few fundamental changes of current Hong Kong electoral system. For example, a candidate qualification review committee is established to determine the eligibility of candidate based on their political background. Policies that are introduced in the 2012 electoral reform are all abandoned. To me, these changes shows the decline of Hong Kong democratisation.

Why is it significant?

The decision itself is not so surprising. Beijing is concerned about its control over Hong Kong since the rise of localism in 2014. It has gradually shown its intention to tighten Hong Kong’s autonomy in the past five years. For example, the decrease of freedom of research, speech and press, the extradition law in 2019, and of course the infamous National Security Law last year. The decision to “improve” Hong Kong electoral system is just another move to increase control over the Special Administrative Region.

Under the new decision, the threshold for pan-democratic camp to participate in an election will be much higher, almost impossible. Beijing has setup few rules to ensure it controls the game, from qualification, nomination, to taking oath and getting votes.

Most importantly, bills that are proposed by the pan-democratic camp will be nearly impossible. In fact, this is already happening since the resign in November last year. After the resign, LegCo has passed $HK 70,354,600,000 (approximately $US 9 billion) of appropriation in 32 hours of meeting. There are limited to nearly no debates on government’s bills. In other words, Hong Kong will officially enter the executive-led political system.

Does “one country, two systems” still exist?

Well, yes to some extents, but it will never be the same.

From the mouth of Hong Kong official, the international community and some Hongkongers may have some ‘misunderstandings’ of the fundamental principle of “one country, two system”. They have too much fantasy on Hong Kong’s democratisation. Indeed, Beijing never promise for “democratisation” in the Basic Law, only general election. Therefore, as long as Hong Kong still has election and enjoys freedom in the economy, its high autonomy still exist, literally speaking.

In addition, I believe some people from the pan-democratic camp will still participate in the LegCo election later this year. Despite many politicians are in custody due to the violation of National Security Law, there are still some “Beijing-recognised” democratic politicians. They are more than welcome to participate in the reformed election, though their voices will no longer be significant.

Prospect of Hong Kong democratisation

Election is always a game. The one who controls the making of the rules always wins the game. Still, Beijing has set rules that not just hard to win, but also difficult to participate. The general public in Hong Kong has limited reaction regarding the new electoral reform. Precisely speaking, most of them have lost hope on the government and Beijing. People are unlikely to have interests in the next LegCo election.

As I stated in the title, the decision signifies the decline of Hong Kong democratisation. To some extents, it is against what has been stated in Hong Kong Basic Law. Indeed, according to Carrie Lam, the decision is based on Hong Kong “actual situation”, and in that case it is not a “decline”. 

However, this is just playing games with wording. The abandon of the 2012 electoral reform is undoubtedly a fall back of Hong Kong elections. Even if Hong Kong goes back to “normal” and Beijing has the complete control of Hong Kong’s political system, I am skeptical that there will be an electoral system that is closest to most Hongkongers have been hoping for.

And since Beijing is so concerned, I believe the so-called grass-root democracy will no longer exist as well. The next “reform” will be regaining control of the District Council. So, there will be no more miracle just as Hongkongers did back in 2019. 

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