The US and China had their first high-level meeting last month since President Biden came to office. The US-China Alaska meeting was intense in front of the media. The speeches from both sides were juicy, and somewhat confronting. People are worried: is it a new Cold War?
However, the meeting is not a signal of entering a Cold War, at least from its outcome.
Knowing US-China relations
Before analysing the US-China Alaska meeting, we must understand what has been progress of their relationships. After the Sunnyland meeting in 2013, the US and China agreed with the idea of “great power strategic relationship”. This was a significant moment from both countries. To the US, it was a recognition of China being a major power. To China, it had a more powerful identity in the international community. However, there were still lots of discrepancy regarding how such “great power relationship” should run. The Trump’s administration from 2017-2020 was an exposure of all the disagreement, such as trade, intellectual properties, security in the Asian-Pacific and human rights.
In fact, China and the US has different expectations of their relationships after 2013.
What does China want?
To China, it is about how to stand aside with the US in the 21st century as another global power. This idea is similar to the “overtake the UK and catch up with the US” slogan during the Mao era, though they have a different concept. The emotional factor of hundred years humiliation, indeed, plays a role here. That is, China needs to stand up for itself and not to be bullied. However, from a realist perspective, being a great power means how to gain the same respect or status like the US. Since the economic reform, China is now the largest economy in the world. Thus, it has significant great contribution and influence to the world.
However, with great power does not come with recognition. China is still regarded as an “outsider” of the western-dominated international order. It does not benefit from the international system. For example, although it is the largest economy, it only has a minority voting portion in the WTO. This explains why China has been pursuing the so-called “wolf warrior” diplomacy in recent years — it was about striving the expected status and influences from the existing international order.
What does the US want?
To the US, the establishment of a great power relations is about balancing its interests. History tells us that an existing power would always feel uncomfortable about a rising power, as they are threatened about its status. The UK and the US was the only exception. The US and China has been avoiding the repetition of history, either you call it a new Cold War or the Thucydides Trap. Washington understand they have lots of mutual interests with China, mostly trading and export. Their relationships have been more interdependent since 1972 when Nixon visited China. Their influences are more or less dependent on each other nowadays.
Thus, the US does not try to “contain” China. This is a cold-war mindset. Instead, the US wants China to rise economically and undertake more international responsibility. It needs to ensure that the rising China would not affect its own interests, particularly in international security and trade. To the US, a great power relation with China is to deal with China as great power, but according to its own interests.
The meaning of the US-China Alaska meeting
Initially, the majority of US and China stakeholders regard Biden’s administration as an opportunity of putting US-China relations back on track after four years of Trump’s chaotic policies. It was about putting all the disagreement on the table that are affecting their core interests: trading partnership, Hong Kong, Taiwan, COVID vaccine etc. Indeed, the two countries’ delegate talked about these issues in a confronting manner in Alaska. It was very un-diplomatic.
But in fact, both countries were acting in front of the media. The purpose was to deliver some messages to the world. To China, it wished to be treated equally as the US. This explains why Yang Jiechi’s “Stop interfering in China’s internal affairs” and the “US is not qualified to speak condescendingly to China” became a popular slogan after the meeting. And to the US, it was about reiterating the American value as an existing global power. That is why the US continued to criticise China’s problems during the meeting, as to illustrate its role as a global police.
Learning by mistakes
However, the tension was all about the juice and soundbite in the media. What happen behind the stage is still unknown. One thing for sure, which both countries’ delegates mentioned in the meeting, the great power relationship is an important one, and both of them wants to avoid confrontation. What they need to do is to know how to each others’ conflicting interests.
The relationship between US and China is still at the stage where they both learning how to posit each other in foreign relation. There a still a degree of optimism of the future of US-China relations.
Implications to other countries
Because the two great powers are important to the international community, all countries need to pay attention. However, China and US are not seeking for alliances, but rather outlining their agenda.
People with a cold-war mindset wrongly perceive that the world is divided into two camps. We are now living in a multipolar world. Middle powers and regional powers do have their own agendas. They do not just American or Chinese foreign policies.
Australia, for example, it is having the worst relationship with China, but not due to its alliance with the US. It is because of the disagreement of the rule-based order in East Asia. As a China’s closest economic partner, Australia has to seek ways to rebuild a trusting relationship with China in the post-COVID era. Also, India cooperates with the US is because of their mutual interest in the Indian Ocean, especially the concern of China’s growing aspiration in the Indo-Pacific. Therefore, regardless the result of the meeting, countries will continue to pursue policies based on their national interests.
Nonetheless, the two great powers have declared their agendas in the US-China Alaska meeting. It is time for countries to act what suit their best interests.